Uninsured rate to hit 8.9% by 2034, CBO projects

By Bridget Early / June 18, 2024

The uninsured rate is poised to climb over the coming decade, the Congressional Budget Office predicts in an article published in the journal Health Affairs Tuesday.

The uninsured rate is 7.7% this year with 26 million people lacking health coverage, up from an all-time low of 7.2% in 2023, according to the CBO. The nonpartisan legislative branch agency projects the share will rise to 8.9% in 2034.

The CBO expects several major factors to influence health coverage trends over the next 10 years.

At least 23 million people lost benefits during the Medicaid redeterminations process that began in April 2023, which resulted in an increase in the uninsured rate that is expected to to persist. More will lose coverage if enhanced subsidies for health insurance exchange plans are allowed to expire at the end of 2025.

The uninsured rate also will climb as more immigrants arrive, the CBO projects. Immigrants historically have been uninsured at a higher rate than the overall population. Federal health programs don't cover people unlawfully residing in the country and are available to legally present immigrants on a restricted basis, but many are covered under employer-sponsored plans.

The CBO projects Medicare enrollment will continue to grow as the population ages and that employers will remain the most common source of coverage. The agency anticipates exchange enrollment will reach another record high next year.

The projected 8.9% uninsured rate in 2034 would be higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic but lower than before the Affordable Care Act of 2010.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a separate report Tuesday showing the uninsured rate for all U.S. residents was 7.6% in 2023, down from 8.4% the year before. Last year, 10.9% of people ages 18-64 were uninsured, down from 12.2% in 2022. The share of uninsured children declined from 4.2% to 3.9% between 2022 and 2023. Less than 1% of people ages 65 and older had no health coverage in both years.