Hospitals predict patient volume will be 4% higher in 2022

Georgina Gonzalez / November 19th, 2021

Many hospitals are reporting decreasing patient volumes but predict higher volumes in 2022, according to a McKinsey & Co. report published Nov. 15.

To produce the findings, McKinsey surveyed leaders from 100 large, private-sector hospitals that have more than 200 beds. Collectively, they represent 10 percent of all hospital beds in the country.

Here are the key findings: 

• On average, hospitals reported inpatient admissions to have returned to 2019 levels.

• Southern and Western hospitals predict the largest inpatient admission increase for 2022, at 6 percent and 5 percent respectively. The average prediction for inpatient increase across all hospitals was 4 percent.

• The hospitals expect a 7 percent increase in operating room procedures by 2023 and a 6 percent increase in emergency department admissions.

• Around 55 percent of respondents reported that access to specialty care is worse now than in 2019.

• More than 40 percent of hospital leaders expect demand to outstrip capacity in both orthopedic surgery and psychiatry.

• Workforce shortages and inpatient bed availability were cited as the largest challenges to increasing elective volume.